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Working Papers

  1. Capital-Based Corporate Tax Benefits: Endogenous Misallocation through Lobbying [Local copy]
    with Tanida Arayavechkit (World Bank) and Felipe E. Saffie (University of Maryland)
  2. Bayesian Analysis of Conditional Moment Models [Local copy]
    with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
  3. DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors [Local copy]
    with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Fei Tan (SLU)
  4. On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates [Local copy]
    with Frank Diebold (Penn) and Boyuan Zhang (Penn)
  5. Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs [Local copy]
    with Jonas Arias (Philadelphia Fed) and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (Penn) and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Emory)
  6. Bayesian GMM [Local copy]


  1. A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
    with Molin Zhong (FRB)
    Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2020, [Local copy] [Online appendix]
  2. Probability Forecast Combination via Entropy Regularized Wasserstein Distance
    with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census)
    Entropy, 2020, [Local copy]
  3. Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and Its Derivatives
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, [Local copy]
  4. Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models
    with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2018, [Local copy] [Appendix]
  5. Metropolitan Land Values
    with David Albouy (UIUC) and Gabriel Ehrlich (Michigan)
    ​Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, [Local copy]
  6. On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts
    with Ross Askanasi (Cornerstone), Francis X. Diebold (Penn), and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
    ​Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2018, [Local copy]
  7. Measuring International Uncertainty: the Case of Korea
    with Boyuan Zhang (Penn), Molin Zhong (FRB), and Dong Jin Lee (Bank of Korea)​
    ​Economics Letters, 2018, [Local copy]
  8. Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn) and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
    ​Journal of Econometrics, 2017, [Local copy]
  9. Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?
    with Molin Zhong (FRB)
    ​International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, [Local copy]
  10. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Error Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    ​Econometric Reviews, 2017, [Local copy]
  11. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Loss Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    ​Economics Letters, 2015, [Local copy]

Other Publications

  1. Measuring Disagreement in Probabilistic and Density Forecasts
    with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census) and Keith Sill (Philadelphia Fed)
    Joint Statistical Meeting Proceedings, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 2020, [Local copy]
  2. Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic
    with Jonas E. Arias (Philadelphia Fed)
    Economic Insights, 2020, [Local copy]

*Disclaimer: The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.