[Home], [Research Papers], [Discussions]

Working Papers

1. Capital-Based Corporate Tax Benefits: Endogenous Misallocation through Lobbying [Local copy]
   with Tanida Arayavechkit (World Bank) and Felipe E. Saffie (University of Maryland)
   
2. Bayesian Analysis of Conditional Moment Models [Local copy]
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
   
3. DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors [Local copy]
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Fei Tan (SLU)
   
4. On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates [Local copy]
   with Frank Diebold (Penn) and Boyuan Zhang (Penn)
   
5. Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs [Local copy]
   with Jonas Arias (Philadelphia Fed) and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (Penn) and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Emory)
   
6. Bayesian GMM [Local copy]
   

Publications

1. A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
   with Molin Zhong (FRB)
   Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2020, [Local copy] [Online appendix]
2. Probability Forecast Combination via Entropy Regularized Wasserstein Distance
   with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census)
   Entropy, 2020, [Local copy]
3. Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and Its Derivatives
   with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, [Local copy]
4. Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
   Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2018, [Local copy] [Appendix]
5. Metropolitan Land Values
   with David Albouy (UIUC) and Gabriel Ehrlich (Michigan)
   ​Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, [Local copy]
6. On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts
   with Ross Askanasi (Cornerstone), Francis X. Diebold (Penn), and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
   ​Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2018, [Local copy]
7. Measuring International Uncertainty: the Case of Korea
   with Boyuan Zhang (Penn), Molin Zhong (FRB), and Dong Jin Lee (Bank of Korea)​
   ​Economics Letters, 2018, [Local copy]
8. Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
   with Francis X. Diebold (Penn) and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
   ​Journal of Econometrics, 2017, [Local copy]
9. Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?
   with Molin Zhong (FRB)
   ​International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, [Local copy]
10. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Error Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    ​Econometric Reviews, 2017, [Local copy]
11. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Loss Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    ​Economics Letters, 2015, [Local copy]

Other Publications

1. Measuring Disagreement in Probabilistic and Density Forecasts
   with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census) and Keith Sill (Philadelphia Fed)
   Joint Statistical Meeting Proceedings, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 2020, [Local copy]
2. Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic
   with Jonas E. Arias (Philadelphia Fed)
   Economic Insights, 2020, [Local copy]