[Home], [Research Papers], [Discussions]

Working Papers

1. Capital-Based Corporate Tax Benefits: Endogenous Misallocation through Lobbying [Local copy]
   with Tanida Arayavechkit (World Bank) and Felipe E. Saffie (University of Maryland)
   
2. A Statistical Learning Approach to Land Valuation: Optimizing the Use of External Information [Local copy]
   with David Albouy (UIUC)
   

Publications

1. The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes
   with Jonas Arias (Philadelphia Fed) and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (Penn) and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Emory)
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Conditionally accepted
   [Local copy]
2. On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates
   with Frank Diebold (Penn) and Boyuan Zhang (Penn)
   Journal of Econometrics, Accepted
   [Local copy]
3. Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models
   with Jonas Arias (Philadelphia Fed) and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Emory)
   Journal of Econometrics, Accepted
   [Local copy]
4. Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
   Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, In press
   [Local copy] [Appendix] [Code]
5. DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Fei Tan (SLU)
   Computational Economics, In press
   [Local copy] [Code]
6. A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
   with Molin Zhong (FRB)
   Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2020
   [Local copy] [Online appendix] [Code]
7. Probability Forecast Combination via Entropy Regularized Wasserstein Distance
   with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census)
   Entropy, 2020
   [Local copy]
8. Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and Its Derivatives
   with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2019
   [Local copy]
9. Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models
   with Siddhartha Chib (WUSTL) and Anna Simoni (CNRS)
   Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2018
   [Local copy] [Appendix] [Code]
10. Metropolitan Land Values
    with David Albouy (UIUC) and Gabriel Ehrlich (Michigan)
    Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018
    [Local copy]
11. On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts
    with Ross Askanasi (Cornerstone), Francis X. Diebold (Penn), and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2018
    [Local copy]
12. Measuring International Uncertainty: the Case of Korea
    with Boyuan Zhang (Penn), Molin Zhong (FRB), and Dong Jin Lee (Bank of Korea)​
    Economics Letters, 2018
    [Local copy]
13. Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn) and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)​
    Journal of Econometrics, 2017
    [Local copy] [Code]
14. Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?
    with Molin Zhong (FRB)
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2017
    [Local copy]
15. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Error Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    Econometric Reviews, 2017
    [Local copy]
16. Assessing Point Forecast Accuracy by Stochastic Loss Distance
    with Francis X. Diebold (Penn)
    Economics Letters, 2015
    [Local copy]

Other Publications

17. Measuring Disagreement in Probabilistic and Density Forecasts
    with Ryan Cumings-Menon (US Census) and Keith Sill (Philadelphia Fed)
    Joint Statistical Meeting Proceedings, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 2020
    [Local copy]
18. Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic
    with Jonas E. Arias (Philadelphia Fed)
    Economic Insights, 2020
    [Local copy]
19. Bayesian GMM
    Ph.D. Dissertation, 2015
    [Original, 2015], [Revised and current version, 2016]